Running back Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons was selected higher than any running back since Saquon Barkley in 2018. Is Robinson worth spending a premium on as a rookie on a run-first offense with a strong offensive line? What is Robinson’s 2023 fantasy football outlook?

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Robinson gained 12 yards on his first carry. Desmond Ridder later threw the ball on a short throw route somewhere other than where Robinson was anticipating, but Robinson stretched back and made a one-handed catch to secure it.

Bijan Robinson expressed his delight, “It felt awesome,” according to “Standing there and showcasing tidbits of the talent God has given me was undoubtedly a blessing. Although it’s only the preseason, I was prepared to play.

Arthur Smith, the head coach of the Falcons, was impressed by Bijan Robinson in every way.

“Bijan Robinson worked quickly. It didn’t appear to be too huge for him, at least,” Smith remarked.

Bijan Robinson and the other key offensive contributors for the Falcons did not participate in the first preseason game, played sparingly on Friday night, and might not participate in the third preseason game either. Falcons supporters will undoubtedly be excited to catch even a brief peek of Robinson on Friday night.

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Fantasy Projection for 2023 by Bijan Robinson

Should Bijan Robinson have been selected by the Falcons with pick eight overall in the NFL Draft? Obviously not. Last season, Tyler Allgeier was far above competent. But do we, as fantasy managers, adore unproven running backs with expensive draft picks? Absolutely.

The Falcons’ absurd selection of a running back with their early first-round pick may not boost their chances of winning, but it’s wonderful for our fantasy teams. Robinson will likely be used as the Falcons’ every-down back, considering there aren’t many of them left in the NFL.

Bijan Robinson


At running back, Bijan Robinson is the entire deal. He moves at 4.46 mph. He declares early. He established himself as a competent pass catcher with a top season collegiate target share of 9.6%. He rushed for 1,580 yards and 20 touchdowns during his senior year at Texas. Robinson has the ability to do it all.

The Falcons might assert that Allgeier will still play a significant role. And possibly he will first see a snap share of 40–50%. But before Robinson truly controls this backfield, it’s only a matter of time.

Breece Hall was replaced by Michael Carter at the beginning of the season the previous year. Hall’s season was regrettably cut short due to an ACL tear, but by the time of his injury, he had already established himself as the undisputed lead back. What we can anticipate from Robinson is that. And based on my best prediction, it should happen no later than Week 3.

Last season, Allgeier averaged 4.9 yards per rush, making him quite productive. I found it astonishing that he accomplished that despite averaging only 1.6 yards before to contact because the offensive line for the Falcons was fairly strong the previous year.

Bijan Robinson, though, is a considerably more talented athlete. He has a solid chance of averaging at least 5.0 yards per rush this season, even in the absence of strong blocking. The offensive line for the Falcons is ranked seventh in PFN’s offensive line rankings. Robinson should have no trouble finding open lanes to use.

Robinson’s ability to find work is the sole issue, assuming there ever is one. He’s a good pass catcher, as we’ve already shown, but it doesn’t guarantee there will be volume.

Desmond Ridder, the quarterback for the Falcons, is nimble. Kyle Pitts and Drake London are his primary pass catchers, therefore he must get the ball to them. Even if Robinson has the third-most targets, the Falcons only targeted running backs 16.6% of the time last year, which was the eighth-lowest percentage in the league.

Thankfully, Robinson just requires a modest receiving role for a genuinely outstanding first season. Like it’s 1970, the Falcons want to run the ball. With a 56% run rate for neutral game scripts last year, they lead the NFL. The only thing possibly stopping Robinson from having a season with 300 carries is his health.

Should Bijan Robinson get drafted this year?

This year, there will be a shift in draft strategy toward wide receivers going first. The last time this happened was in 2016, when WRs made up five of the top seven picks. But the great running back continues to be the most valued asset in fantasy football.

Although Robinson hasn’t taken a single NFL snap, he is already regarded as a top-tier running back. It should be no problem for fantasy managers to select him in the first round. What matters is how soon you can defend him.

To be very honest, I think Robinson will come out on top as the RB1 overall and be the consensus pick at number 1.01 in 2024 fantasy drafts. Take that whatever you want.

Bijan Robinson

He is my RB3, which matches his ADP, for the 2023 season, and I would select him as high as fifth overall. I would not be in the least bit critical if you wanted to pick him as the top overall pick this year.

The stage is ideal for Robinson to succeed right away. He has the best circumstances, opportunities, and talent in the world. Fantasy managers are well aware of Robinson’s potential impact given his ADP of sixth overall. As a pick in the middle of the first round, he merits being the captain of your fantasy teams.


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